The Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers will meet in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday. Miami got its first win of the season in Week 4 and will have to overcome a key injury to get a second straight victory. Carolina has struggled offensively and will try to change that at home to avoid a 1-4 start. Before kickoff from Charlotte, continue reading to get my Dolphins vs Panthers prediction.
Our Dolphins vs Panthers Pick
- Pick: Under 44.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
- Broadcast: FOX
Dolphins vs Panthers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins –1.5 | Dolphins –125 / Panthers +105 | 44.5 |
Key Storylines
- Tyreek Hill’s injury and roster adjustment: Miami’s Week 4 win over the Jets came at a steep cost. Star receiver Tyreek Hill suffered a serious knee injury that will end his season. The offense will need to recalibrate and lean more heavily on Darren Waller, Jaylen Waddle, and the running game to fill the void.
- Panthers’ search for consistency: Carolina has shown flashes but continues to struggle for the most part. They are 1-3 and have averaged 18.75 points per game. Their lone win of the season came at home but they have a lot of work to do if they want to get a second win at home this week.
- Miami’s road woes: The Dolphins are 0-2 on the road so far this season. They lost both of those games by double-digits, giving up 32 points per game in road games against the Bills and Colts. Miami is playing a team several tiers below the Colts and Bills this week but will still need to prove themselves away from South Florida.
Quarterback Play
Miami – Tua Tagovailoa: Tua remains the signal-caller in Miami. His success will depend on making quick reads and limiting mistakes with his top receiving threat gone. His decision-making and pocket awareness will be critical without Hill to get free late and bail him out of tough situations.
Carolina – Bryce Young: The Panthers’ young quarterback must deliver clean, timely throws and avoid taking too many risks. Young has three interceptions through four games, which isn’t terrible, but he also struggles to make explosive plays in the passing game.
Betting Trends
- Both teams are 2-2 against the spread coming into this contest.
- Miami has gone over the total in three of their first four games.
- Carolina has gone 2-2 on over/unders through Week 4.
Dolphins vs Panthers Model Projection
Score Projection: Dolphins 23 – Panthers 20
Win Probability: Dolphins 55%, Panthers 45%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for an ugly game from Charlotte here. The Dolphins offense will likely struggle without Tyreek Hill to provide a vertical threat. Carolina’s offense won’t be much of a threat either, with Bryce Young struggling to make an impact again early in the year. I’ll take the under in this game, as that seems like a better move than trusting either of these teams to cover the number.
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- Source: https://ats.io/nfl/miami-dolphins-vs-carolina-panthers-prediction-10-5-2025/469232/