Subway Series Game 2: Mets vs Yankees Odds, Pitching Matchup & Prediction
The crosstown rivalry continues Saturday afternoon as the New York Yankees host the New York Mets for Game 2 of the Subway Series. After claiming a 6-2 victory in Game 1, the Yankees (26-18, 14-8 at home) are favored once again by oddsmakers. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 PM ET from Yankee Stadium.
Mets vs Yankees Odds
– Moneyline: Yankees -135 | Mets +114
– Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+142)
– Total: Over/Under 9.5 (Under slightly favored)
As of May 16, sportsbooks have the Yankees as -135 moneyline favorites. The total sits at 9.5 runs, with early betting action leaning toward the under.
Starting Pitching Matchup: Schmidt vs Canning
The Yankees will hand the ball to right-hander Clarke Schmidt (1-1, 4.73 ERA), while the Mets will counter with Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.36 ERA). Both teams enter this matchup among the top three in World Series futures.
Schmidt, however, has struggled with hard contact and home run prevention this season. In his most recent outing, he allowed a pair of long balls to the Mariners, bringing his total to five across just 97 at-bats this year.
Those issues could be amplified against a powerful Mets lineup. In previous appearances against the Mets, Schmidt has been hit hard — Mets hitters are batting .353 with a .588 slugging percentage and .450 OBP against him with minimal strikeouts.
Although New York’s offense didn’t fire on all cylinders in Game 1, the Mets are a top-tier unit that ranks top-10 in most major offensive categories. Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have all hit at least eight homers, while Soto, Alonso and Lindor each own an OPS above .850. The Mets lineup ranks top-six in MLB in slugging and OPS, and top-10 in runs and batting average.
Soto received a mixed reception in his return to Yankee Stadium, drawing three walks after seeing few hittable pitches on Friday.
Griffin Canning vs Clarke Schmidt — By the Numbers
On the Mets side, Griffin Canning brings a 5-1 record into Saturday’s start, but underlying metrics suggest regression is coming. Opponents are making hard contact nearly 49% of the time, and his .295 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) combined with an 88% left-on-base rate are unsustainably low indicators, especially against a lineup as explosive as the Yankees.
The Yankees made quick work of Tylor Megill in the opener, knocking him out after just 2.2 innings. The heart of New York’s lineup — Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger — combined for seven hits and five runs in the win. The Yankees lead the American League in runs, hits, home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Judge continues to dominate as the favorite in the AL MVP race, pacing the league in nearly every key batting category.
Prediction & Best Bet for Game 2
Best Bet: Over 9.5 total runs (-108)
With two potent offenses and two vulnerable starters taking the mound, expect fireworks in Game 2. The Yankees have scored at least six runs in six of their last nine contests and are slashing .291/.373/.565 over the past week. They should be well-positioned to capitalize on Canning’s regression indicators in a hitter-friendly park.
Although the Mets were quiet in Game 1, it’s unlikely they’ll stay that way against Schmidt, who’s been ineffective against their core hitters. Look for both teams to contribute to a high-scoring affair and push this total over 9.5 runs.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com