The Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm will play in a huge WNBA matchup on Sunday. These teams are both in the top eight in the WNBA standings and will look for a win to help their chances of making the playoffs. Before these teams play at Climate Pledge Arena, continue reading to get my breakdown of the game, including my Mercury vs Storm prediction.
Our Mercury vs Storm Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury –1
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm
- Date & Time: August 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Mercury vs Storm Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury –1 | Phoenix –118, Seattle –102 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Storm just ended a five-game losing streak with an 80-78 win in Vancouver over the Atlanta Dream. But the Storm are still in eighth place in the WNBA standings and will look to hold onto their spot in the playoffs with a win.
- Phoenix took a home loss to the Las Vegas Aces in their last game. That was their second straight defeat and the Mercury are in danger of falling out of the top four in the standings with another loss here.
- We get a great matchup of frontcourt players in this game. Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor of the Storm are strong on both ends of the floor and will look to slow down the Mercury duo of Satout Sabally and Alyssa Thomas.
- Thomas is in the WNBA MVP conversation as she continues to stuff the stat sheet while MVP favorite Napheesa Collier misses time with an ankle injury.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Seattle leads the regular season series against the Mercury 2-1. The home teams in this season series are 2-1 so far.
- Phoenix is 8-7 on the road for the year.
- Seattle is 8-9 on their home floor in 2025.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Skylar Diggins | Over 20 points + assists | Diggins is a constant double-double threat with her scoring and ball distribution. |
| Satou Sabally | Over 15.5 points | Sabally leads the Mercury at 17.3 PPG and should be aggressive in trying to help her team end its losing streak. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Mercury rank seventh in the WNBA in offensive rating and the Storm are eighth.
- Both teams are in the top five in defensive rating. Phoenix is second in the league in that category and the Storm are fifth.
- Phoenix ranks fourth in the W in pace and Seattle ranks seventh. But neither team should influence the total with its pace alone.
Mercury vs Storm Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 85 – Seattle Storm 81
Win Probability: Phoenix 58%, Seattle 42%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be the best game of the day in the WNBA from a pure quality standpoint on both sides. As far as the outcome is concerned, I think the Mercury will pick up the win against a Storm team that hasn’t won a game in the United States in quite a bit.
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- Source: https://ats.io/wnba/phoenix-mercury-vs-seattle-storm-prediction-odds-picks-august-17-2025/462630/