The 2025 WNBA Finals continue tonight as the Phoenix Mercury host the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3, with the Aces leading the series 2-0. After back-to-back strong performances, Las Vegas is looking to close in on a third title in four years, while the Mercury fight to stay alive at home.
Our Mercury vs. Aces predictions highlight options like Phoenix’s resilience at home, and prop bets such as A’ja Wilson’s dominance and Alyssa Thomas’s all-around impact. Let’s dive into our best bets for tonight.
These predictions are based on statistical analysis and trends, but sports betting always involves risk. Please bet responsibly.
Aces vs. Mercury WNBA Finals Game 3 Overview
The Las Vegas Aces have taken control of the Finals with wins of 89-86 and 91-78, showcasing their balanced offense and strong defensive adjustments. A’ja Wilson has been unstoppable, averaging 24.5 points and 12 rebounds through the first two games, while Jackie Young exploded for 32 points in Game 2. Chelsea Gray has provided veteran leadership and steady playmaking, and the Aces’ bench continues to outproduce Phoenix’s reserves.
For the Mercury, Game 3 at home represents a must-win scenario. Alyssa Thomas has been the team’s engine, nearly averaging a triple-double across the playoffs, while Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally add scoring punch. Phoenix thrives on its defense-first identity, but to turn the series around, they’ll need more contributions beyond their star trio and a boost from their bench.
Phoenix Mercury Moneyline
Phoenix’s 15-7 home record this season gives them a legitimate chance to extend the series. With the crowd behind them and urgency on their side, the Mercury are well-positioned for a bounce-back. Alyssa Thomas’s playmaking and Kahleah Copper’s scoring could tip the balance in Game 3, especially if Phoenix gets timely contributions from role players.
Total Points Under 163.5
While both teams feature offensive firepower, the Mercury’s defensive style may dictate pace at home. In four regular season meetings, three were decided by six points or fewer, with tight, lower-scoring finishes. If Phoenix can slow down Las Vegas’s transition game, the Under becomes a strong play tonight.
A’ja Wilson to Record a Double-Double
Wilson is averaging 24.5 points and 12 rebounds in this series, with no signs of slowing down. She has consistently dominated Phoenix’s frontcourt, and her ability to impact both ends of the floor makes this one of the most reliable prop bets. Expect another double-double performance from the four-time MVP.
Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5
Thomas continues to fill the stat sheet, combining rebounds and assists at an elite level. She nearly posted a triple-double in Game 1 and remains the focal point of Phoenix’s offense. Given her heavy minutes and all-around role, her Over on combined rebounds and assists is a strong prop bet for tonight.
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- Source: https://sportshandle.com/mercury-vs-aces-predictions-best-bets-wnba-finals-wilson-thomas-player-props/