A’ja Wilson’s game-winning jumper with 0.3 seconds left in Game 3 gave the Las Vegas Aces a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Phoenix Mercury. Tonight, the Mercury return home for Game 4, fighting to extend the WNBA Finals while bettors eye strong opportunities for picks, parlays, and prop bets.
Our Mercury vs. Aces predictions for tonight highlight value on the Phoenix Mercury moneyline, the total points line, and two player props featuring A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas. Below, we’ve broken down the key betting angles for tonight’s game.
*Please note: Sports betting outcomes are unpredictable. These picks are based on data and trends but are not guarantees.
Aces vs. Mercury WNBA Finals Game 4 Overview
The Las Vegas Aces enter Game 4 with a 3-0 series lead after showing poise in both home and away settings. A’ja Wilson continues her historic postseason run, averaging over 26 points per game, including 34 points and 14 rebounds in Game 3. Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray add crucial support, while bench depth from Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans has widened the Aces’ edge.
Phoenix, however, has been competitive throughout the Finals, losing Games 1 and 3 by just a combined five points. Alyssa Thomas is nearly averaging a triple-double in the series, while Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner have provided timely scoring. The biggest concern is the health of Satou Sabally, who left Game 3 late with a head injury and is a game-time decision for tonight. Without her, the Mercury’s scoring depth could be severely tested.
Phoenix Mercury Moneyline
The Mercury have lost three straight but showed resilience in Game 3, erasing a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit before falling in the final second. Returning home with elimination on the line, Phoenix should play with desperation and energy. Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner remain reliable scorers, and Kahleah Copper’s late-game scoring burst proves they can push the Aces deep. If Sabally is cleared, the Mercury moneyline becomes an even stronger play.
Over 164.5 Total Points
The Finals have already produced three high-scoring games, with totals of 175, 169, and 178 points. The Aces thrive in an uptempo pace, and their 56% three-point shooting in the first half of Game 3 highlights their offensive firepower. Phoenix, meanwhile, has shown it can make huge scoring runs late, especially at home. With both teams comfortable in the 80s and 90s, the over on 164.5 is well-supported by recent trends.
A’ja Wilson Over 25.5 Points
Wilson is rewriting the postseason record book, becoming the WNBA’s single-postseason scoring leader. Her 34-point outing in Game 3 came against one of the league’s top defenses. With the Mercury potentially shorthanded inside if Sabally is limited, Wilson should continue to dominate scoring opportunities. Her current form makes the over 25.5 points a strong prop bet.
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 Rebounds
Thomas has been a workhorse throughout the Finals, collecting 12 boards in Game 3. Her role as the Mercury’s engine on both ends ensures she will log heavy minutes in this elimination game. Against an Aces team that takes a high volume of shots, Thomas should see plenty of rebound chances, making the over on 9.5 rebounds appealing.
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- Source: https://sportshandle.com/mercury-vs-aces-predictions-wilson-thomas-and-total-points-to-go-over/