The 2025 WNBA Finals make history tonight as the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury tip off the league’s first-ever best-of-seven series. A’ja Wilson’s Aces seek a dynasty-cementing third title in four years, while Alyssa Thomas’s underdog Mercury, rebuilt from scratch this season, look to complete a stunning, rest-fueled run.
Below, we share our Mercury vs. Aces predictions for WNBA Finals Game 1, along with best bets and player prop recommendations, suitable for building a same-game parlay.
Disclaimer: Sports betting outcomes are unpredictable. These suggestions are based on analysis and trends, but there are no guarantees.
Mercury vs. Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Overview
The Las Vegas Aces enter Game 1 on home court after a marathon semifinal series against Indiana that went to overtime in the decisive Game 5. While A’ja Wilson has been dominant with nearly 26 points and 10 rebounds per game this postseason, fatigue could be a concern for the defending champions. Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray remain vital pieces for Las Vegas, with Young coming off a monster 32-point performance in the semifinals.
Phoenix, meanwhile, arrives rested and confident. They’ve taken down higher seeds in both rounds, defeating the Liberty and Lynx, while showcasing elite defensive execution. Alyssa Thomas has been the team’s engine, nearly averaging a triple-double, while Satou Sabally and veteran DeWanna Bonner provide scoring depth. The Mercury were swept 0-4 in the regular season by Las Vegas, but their fourth-quarter dominance in the playoffs makes them a dangerous underdog.
Total Points Over 159.5
Both teams have strengths that point toward higher scoring. The Aces lead the playoffs in Offensive Rating, while Phoenix thrives late in games, posting a +23.8 Net Rating in fourth quarters. With A’ja Wilson consistently drawing fouls and Alyssa Thomas creating offense for her teammates, Game 1 could push past the projected line of 159.5.
Las Vegas Aces Moneyline
Despite the short turnaround, the Aces are tough to pick against at home. They swept Phoenix in the regular season, and their star duo of Wilson and Young gives them consistent offensive production. Chelsea Gray’s veteran leadership and ability to control the tempo should help Las Vegas secure a critical opening win in the Finals.
A’ja Wilson to record a double-double
Wilson has been nearly automatic with her postseason production, averaging close to 26 points and double-digit rebounds. Against Phoenix’s physical frontcourt, she should still find opportunities inside and at the free-throw line. A double-double is well within reach and remains one of the safer player prop angles for bettors tonight.
Alyssa Thomas Over 17.5 Rebounds + Assists
Thomas’s unique skill set allows her to influence the game beyond scoring. With averages of over 8 rebounds and 9 assists in the playoffs, she consistently fills the stat sheet. Facing an Aces team that forces turnovers, Thomas’s steady ball distribution and rebounding presence make the Over on 17.5 combined rebounds and assists a strong prop bet.
Use Playbook to Make Mercury vs. Aces Picks
Action Network has launched Playbook, an AI-powered tool that instantly generates betslips based on text or screenshots. If you spot a Mercury vs. Aces prediction on X or Discord, simply tag @Playbook and receive a betslip you can place in seconds. It’s a fast, easy way to turn betting insights into real wagers.
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- Source: https://sportshandle.com/mercury-vs-aces-predictions-best-bets-for-the-wnba-finals-game-1/