The first Commissioner’s Cup game on the 2025 schedule features the undefeated Minnesota Lynx visiting the expansion Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center on Sunday, June 1. Minnesota enters this matchup with a 6-0 record, following a hard-fought 74-71 win over Phoenix without star forward Napheesa Collier, marking their sixth straight victory with a focus on strong defense and late-game poise. Golden State, on the other hand, showed significant progress in an 82-77 loss to New York, narrowing a 28-point deficit from two nights before and even taking the lead in the last two minutes.
Lynx vs Valkyries Preview
In their six games, the Lynx have established one of the WNBA’s top defensive profiles, with opponents averaging 76.3 points per game against them, largely due to Cheryl Reeve’s tenacious guards. Even without Collier in Phoenix, the Lynx forced 15 turnovers and won despite shooting just 36%. Expect the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year to return on Sunday, as she continues to lead the league with 26.8 points per game, and her presence should challenge a Valkyries front line struggling in their inaugural season.
The Lynx offense is deep beyond Collier, making them serious title contenders. Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith have been effective from three-point range, while Courtney Williams excels at scoring both at the rim and mid-range. Against a team still forming its identity, the Lynx are expected to produce a strong offensive performance.
Golden State has a 2-3 record, but their effort against the defending champion Liberty shows promise. Salaün (18 points, 13 rebounds) gave Breanna Stewart difficulties with her high energy, Julie Vanloo was an efficient distributor, and Cecilia Zandalasini has become a significant three-point threat now on the court. Coach Natalie Nakase’s team has been more competitive than several more established franchises early this season and will need all their competitive spirit to secure an upset here.
Betting Insights
Minnesota is favored by 9.5 points for this game, with the total set at 164.5. The Lynx are 2-4 against the spread this season despite their 6-0 start, while the Valkyries are 3-2 against the spread. Four of the Lynx’s six games have gone under the total, and all five of the Valkyries’ games have stayed under their totals.
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Lynx vs Valkyries Prediction
Golden State shows tangible growth, but the Lynx boast top-notch cohesion, superior depth, and the league’s best defense. Expect Collier to make her presence known against Salaün, creating opportunities for McBride from the perimeter. While Vanloo’s playmaking can keep the Valkyries in contention for periods, Minnesota’s second unit is expected to thrive against a bench still defining roles. Minnesota is likely to dominate in the paint, win the turnover battle, and increase the game’s tempo enough to push the total over 165.
Final score projection: Minnesota 88, Golden State 78
Best wager: Lynx -9.5. Lean Over 164.5, though the spread offers a clearer angle given Minnesota’s execution advantage in late-game situations.
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