The Minnesota Lynx will face the Atlanta Dream in College Park, GA on Friday, June 27, 2025. Both teams are in the top four of the WNBA standings as they approach this matchup. However, only one will secure a win in what could be the weekend’s best game in the WNBA. Continue reading for my analysis and prediction for the Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream game.
Our Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream Pick
– Spread: Dream -1
– Total: Over 156.5
– Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
– Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Atlanta Dream
– Date & Time: Friday, June 27, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
– Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
– Broadcast: ION
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|———|———————–|——-|
| Dream -1| Lynx +100, Dream -120 | 156.5 |
Key Storylines
– The Lynx hold the best record in the WNBA at 12-2 but lost their last game to the Washington Mystics, ending a three-game winning streak.
– The absence of MVP favorite Napheesa Collier, dealing with a back injury, was a significant factor in the Lynx’s loss to the Mystics. Collier is questionable for this game.
– Atlanta stands at 10-5 but lost 68-55 in Dallas on June 24. Despite offseason roster changes, the Dream have gelled well and have an opportunity to prove themselves against last year’s runners-up.
– Atlanta is at full strength with no injuries reported.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
– This is the first of three scheduled matchups between these teams in the 2025 regular season.
– Minnesota is 12-2 straight up this season but is just 7-7 against the spread.
– Atlanta is 9-6 ATS in 2025.
– Atlanta is 7-7-1 in over/unders this season, while the Lynx have stayed under the total 9 times in 14 games.
– The Dream are 6-1 at home this season, while the Lynx are 5-2 on the road.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|——————–|—————|————————————————————————–|
| Napheesa Collier (MIN) | Over 20.5 points | If Collier plays, she should score over 20 points by utilizing jumpers effectively. |
| Allisha Gray (ATL) | Over 18.5 points | Averaging nearly 20 points per game, Gray drives Atlanta’s offense. |
| Napheesa Collier (MIN) | Under 7.5 rebounds | Facing Griner and Jones for rebounds should keep Collier under this number. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
– Offensive Efficiency: Atlanta ranks 2nd, and the Lynx rank 3rd in offensive rating.
– Defensive Efficiency: Minnesota has the best defensive rating, while Atlanta ranks 5th of 13 teams.
– Pace: Both teams play at the league’s slowest paces, with Minnesota being the slowest.
– Potential Mismatch: Both teams are likely to get offense from their bigs, with Collier shooting from outside, and Griner and Jones scoring in close.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream Model Projection
– Score Projection: Dream 82 – Lynx 76
– Win Probability: Atlanta 52%, Minnesota 48%
Final Thoughts
This game could preview a late-round playoff matchup in the WNBA, given the talent on both sides. Collier’s uncertain health status won’t aid the Lynx, nor will playing away against an Atlanta team dominant at home. Expect the Dream to win and solidify their status among the league’s top teams alongside the Lynx and Liberty.
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