The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday. The Dodgers made quick work of the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card round and will try to get off to a good start against the Phillies here. But the Phillies are well-rested and will try to halt the momentum of the defending champs. Before the first pitch from Philly, continue reading to get my Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 prediction.
Our Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Phillies ML
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 6:38 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Cristopher Sánchez (LAD)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: TBS (also on truTV, streaming via HBO Max)
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The splash headline going into this game is Shohei Ohtani making his postseason pitching debut for the Dodgers. After returning this season from elbow surgery, he posted a 2.87 ERA and entered the postseason having not allowed a run in his last 16⅔ innings. He will try to get this series off to a good start for LA.
The Phillies will go with lefty Cristopher Sánchez. He emerged as one of their more steady starters in 2025 and leads a rotation that ranks among the best in MLB by WAR for starters. Sanchez has had mixed results against L.A. in the past. But he enters the postseason ranked fifth in the league in ERA and will try to neutralize the explosive lineup of the Dodgers.
Recent team streaks
The Dodgers enter on a seven-game win streak and come off a Wild Card series sweep of the Reds. They scored 18 runs in their two Wild Card wins over Cincinnati. The Phillies won four of the last five games of the regular season and earned a bye into the NLDS.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Philadelphia went 4-2 against the Dodgers in their regular-season games this year.
- The Phillies went 55-26 at home during the regular season.
- Los Angeles went 41-40 on the road going into postseason play.
Dodgers vs Phillies Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Dodgers 4 – Phillies 5
Win Probability: Phillies 53%, Dodgers 47%
Final Thoughts
This could end up being the best series of the Division Series and the winner will likely be considered the favorite to win the World Series. I think that the Phillies will be the team to draw first blood in this series. Philadelphia comes into this game with a rest advantage and they could very well get to Ohtani in the biggest game he’s pitched in during his MLB career. I’ll take the Phillies and their raucous crowd to get the job done in Game 1.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers-vs-philadelphia-phillies-game-1-prediction-10-4-2025/469639/