While many football punters will have their accas and bet builders ready to go long before kick-off, plenty of us will have a bash at in-play betting. There are plenty of reasons for this: you may have missed the chance to place a bet before the game started; you may be out in the pub watching the game live, or you may simply prefer to make an assessment based on how two teams have felt each other out before placing your bet.
Whatever the reason, we know that live betting on football is popular. Yet, it is not always a straightforward in terms of strategy. And, you can argue that there are pros and cons of betting this way. However, it is indisputable that the experience has improved over the years as the technology to support live betting has expanded, offering more markets and insights for punters.
The Big Attraction
Almost certainly, the main attraction of live betting is that it lets you react to shifts in momentum. As a football fan, you can sense the ebb and flow of a match, and in-play betting gives you a chance to react to that. We can give you a recent example. Man City’s recent FA Cup tie against Bournemouth. The former was pretty turgid in the first half of the game, eventually going 1-0 down after Evanilson scored for the hosts. Pep Guardiola rang the changes at half-time, and you could sense almost immediately that City would be a different prospect in the second half. If you managed to get a live bet on before Erling Haaland’s equaliser, you would have got a decent price for City to win, which they eventually did.
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The Pitfalls
Of course, sometimes it’s easier said than done. If we take our example of the City game, you’ll note that Erling Haaland equaliser came in the 49th minute. You would have had to act quickly to get on the odds for the full City comeback. And that, perhaps, is the main issue with live betting as a strategy, A game can change in seconds, and you’ll arguably need a little luck to get the timing right. It works in both directions, too, as you can act prematurely or wait until it is too late.
The Odds Fluctuations
For serious punters, we would argue that it is important to be aware of how the odds are changing and how they match up to the pre-match prices. By that, we mean you need to be aware of the value you are getting. For instance, if a team is 2/1 to win a game before kick-off, there might be odds movement to the downside – say 7/4 – within the first minute of the game. That’s something you obviously want to avoid. Perhaps waiting until ten minutes in you might get a better price, but that runs the risk of an early goal or incident ruining your strategy.
Tools and Blackouts
Frankly, live betting used to be a bit of a pain because there were so many periods during a game where the markets were suspended. It’s not the case today. In fact, the real-time data keeps up with events to such an extent that markets can remain open while, for example, a penalty kick is about to be taken or VAR is in process. It’s worth noting, too, that you are provided with a variety of in-game statistics. These should be used to your advantage where possible.
Balancing Emotion and Cool-Head Strategy
It’s important to remember that when watching a game, you can get emotional, even if it is not your team in action. That may cloud your judgement, prompting you to make decisions that are not based in reality. Of course, the opposite is also true – you can pick up on factors that might not be evident in the stats. The key is to strike a balance between what you see before your eyes and what is rooted in historical data. Above all, you need to be working out whether the bet you take offers true value. Weigh up the odds, momentum, and your statistical analysis (both in-game and pre-game), and you can get the most out of in-play betting.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: https://matchedbets.com/blog/live-football-betting-strategy-discussion-factors-to-watch/