The New York Liberty will travel to Uncasville to play against the Connecticut Sun on Friday night at Mohegan Sun Arena. The Liberty are without star forward Breanna Stewart and are currently on a three-game losing streak. They aim to overcome these challenges against the team with the league’s worst record. Keep reading for my analysis of this Eastern Conference matchup and my Liberty vs Sun prediction.
Our Liberty vs Sun Pick
– Pick: Sun +11
– Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
– Get Your Bonus Bets: Use bet365 bonus code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets for this game, regardless of whether your first bet wins or loses!
Game Snapshot
– Matchup: New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun
– Date & Time: August 1, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
– Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
– Broadcast: ION
Liberty vs Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|——–|———–|——-|
| NYL –11 | NYL –650 / CONN +470 | 168 |
Key Storylines
– Star forward Breanna Stewart is sidelined with a bone bruise in her right knee and will not play Friday. The Liberty have struggled without her contributions on both ends.
– The Liberty are on a three-game losing streak, which includes two consecutive road losses against the Dallas Wings and Minnesota Lynx.
– Connecticut is 4-21, holding the worst record in the league. However, they are coming into this game healthy and will attempt to upset as a double-digit underdog.
– This marks the fifth consecutive home game for the Sun and the third straight road game for the Liberty, which could be a factor in the game’s outcome.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
– New York won the first matchup this season in June by 48 points, one of the most one-sided games in WNBA history.
– The Liberty have a losing record against the spread at 11-13-2.
– Connecticut is 12-13 against the spread this year.
– New York is 15-11 to the over this season.
– Connecticut is 13-11-1 to the over in 2025.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|——–|——|———-|
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 6.5 assists | Connecticut ranks 13th in assists allowed this season. |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 20.5 points | Ionescu has been productive with Stewart out and should have another big game. |
| Tina Charles | Over 14.5 points | Charles averages 16.1 PPG, and the Sun need her scoring to have a chance. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
– The Liberty rank second in offensive rating and net rating, third in defensive rating.
– Connecticut ranks last in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
– New York plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA, while Connecticut ranks 10th in tempo.
– Key matchups: Connecticut needs to defend Jonquel Jones on the interior, and the Liberty must slow down Marina Mabrey on the perimeter.
Liberty vs Sun Model Projection
– Score Projection: New York 90 – Connecticut 80
– Win Probability: New York 85%, Connecticut 15%
Final Thoughts
Betting on the Connecticut Sun is both a risk and an opportunity. Though I get double-digits by backing them, it requires the Sun to stay within 10 points. I’ll back the Sun here as the Liberty have struggled without Breanna Stewart. New York is expected to win, but Connecticut might put up a better fight than in their previous encounter.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com