The Kansas State Wildcats and Baylor Bears will meet in college football on Saturday afternoon. Kansas State has a chance to get back to the .500 mark for the season with a win in Waco, while Baylor is favored to get a win that would move them to 4-2. Here, I break down this game between Big 12 programs and you can find my Kansas State vs Baylor prediction below.
Our Kansas State vs Baylor Pick
- Pick: Baylor –5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas State Wildcats vs Baylor Bears
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Kansas State vs Baylor Odds
| Odds | |
|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor –5.5 |
| Moneyline | Baylor –210 / K-State +175 |
| Total | 61.5 |
Key Storylines
Baylor is the more explosive offensive team going into this game. They have scored into the 40s in three of their five games so far this season. But they have also struggled on defense and that has resulted in a couple of losses at home to power conference opponents so far this year. Which version of the Baylor defense we see here could tell the story of this game again.
Kansas State got their first win over an FBS team this season last week when they beat UCF by two touchdowns. That was the best offensive performance of the season for the K-State offense and they will try to build on that in this game.
Quarterback Play
Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson has completed 63.6% of his passes this season, tossing 17 touchdowns against three interceptions. He’s at the heart of Baylor’s high-volume passing offense and has formed strong connections with Josh Cameron and Kobe Prentice. If Robertson can continue to make big plays downfield, the Bears could get a big home win over a conference opponent.
Kansas State is led by quarterback Avery Johnson. He has thrown for 1,019 yards with eight touchdowns and just one interception. Johnson is also a gifted runner and will try to use his legs to make the Baylor defense uncomfortable and unable to just sit back in pass coverage.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Kansas State is 1-4 against the spread this season. They covered for the first time last week against UCF.
- Baylor is also 1-4 against the spread going into this Week 6 matchup.
- Baylor has gone over the total in three of their first five games.
- Kansas State has had three of their first five games stay under their totals.
Kansas State vs Baylor Model Projection
Score Projection: Baylor 34 – Kansas State 27
Win Probability: Baylor 72%, Kansas State 28%
Final Thoughts
Kansas State got a win that they desperately needed last week. But that was at home against a physically overmatched UCF team. This week, the Wildcats should look a lot worse on the road against a Baylor team that can carve up their opponents through the air. I recommend laying the points with Baylor in this matchup, as the Bears should pick up a second straight win and move to 2-1 in the Big 12.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: https://ats.io/college-football/kansas-state-wildcats-vs-baylor-bears-pick-prediction-10-4-2025/469552/