The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season. The Chiefs will look to build on a dominant performance in Week 4, while the Jaguars are riding high after a statement win over San Francisco. Will the Chiefs get above .500 with a win, or will the Jags move to 4-1 on the season? Continue reading to find out who I like, as I give you my Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction.
Our Chiefs vs Jaguars Pick
- Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date & Time: Monday, October 6, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
- Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN / ABC
Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds
| Odds | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs –3 |
| Moneyline | Chiefs –180 / Jaguars +150 |
| Total | 46.5 points |
Key Storylines
- Kansas City’s momentum: The Chiefs dominated in Week 4, beating the Baltimore Ravens 37–20 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. Patrick Mahomes threw four touchdowns in that game and the offense didn’t turn the ball over. Kansas City may be hitting its stride after winning two straight games.
- Jacksonville’s upside: The Jaguars enter this game at 3–1, having just upset the San Francisco 49ers 26–21 on the road. Their defense is creating takeaways at an elite clip. They already have 13 turnovers forced in four games. They will be tested against Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs’ offense.
Quarterback Play
Patrick Mahomes has had an up-and-down start to 2025, struggling in the first two weeks before bouncing back in the last two games. He looked sharp again in Week 4, slinging four touchdowns and showing poise under pressure. A third straight win would do a lot to silence the doubters after a rough start.
Trevor Lawrence has been solid for Jacksonville. Turnovers are always a concern with Lawrence and he has thrown four picks through four weeks. But the running game has really helped Lawrence so far this season, with Travis Etienne averaging just under 100 yards per game.
Betting Trends
- Jacksonville is tied for the best ATS record in the NFL this season at 3-1.
- Kansas City is 2-2 against the spread through four games.
- Both teams have split their first four games 2-2 when it comes to over/unders.
- Kansas City is 1-1 on the road this season.
- Jacksonville is 2-0 at home so far this year.
Chiefs vs Jaguars Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas City 21 – Jacksonville 24
Win Probability: Kansas City 50% | Jacksonville 50%
Final Thoughts
This game is a toss-up as far as I’m concerned. The brand name of the Chiefs may be a tempting bet for football fans here. But Jacksonville is allowing just 18 points per game so far this year and I expect them to make things tough on Mahomes and the Kansas City offense. I will go the contrarian route in this game and take the Jaguars to cover the spread as a home underdog to close out Week 5 in the NFL.
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- Source: https://ats.io/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-prediction-10-5-2025/469244/