A recent report by a Wall Street analyst suggested that regular prediction market users lose money faster than traditional sports bettors, which did not sit well with Kalshi.
The Report Said Prediction Markets Favor Pro Traders
The report, created by Citizens analyst Jordan Bender, used betting data claiming that prediction market players lose money faster than sports bettors. Bender’s analysis, based on Juice Reel data, indicated that the bottom 25% of prediction market users lost about 28 cents per dollar in the first 90 days, while sports bettors lost 11 cents per dollar in three months. It also showed prediction market traders losing 7% of their bets in three months, compared to 1% for sports bettors. Bender stated that these markets favor professional traders and established firms over average users. Kalshi, however, disagreed.
Kalshi Disputed the Findings
Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, labeled the report as false and linked it to an “extortion attempt.” She claimed the Juice Reel CEO offered a resolution through a meeting with Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour. In contrast, Juice Reel CEO Ricky Gold denied these allegations, calling them “fabrications” and stating that Kalshi pressured him to declare the data inaccurate. Kalshi later admitted the report was unlikely an extortion attempt but contested the findings, emphasizing that their decentralized model means no house controls the game, and players set prices and compete against each other. Kalshi also denied pressuring Gold to declare the data wrong.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com