The UFC 317 heavyweight fight between Jhonata Diniz and Alvin Hines presents a high-stakes encounter as both fighters enter the T-Mobile Arena octagon on Saturday, June 28, 2025. Diniz, a 34-year-old knockout specialist, looks to recover from his first career loss, while 33-year-old Hines makes his UFC debut with an unbeaten 7-0 record. Here is my prediction for the Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines fight.
Our Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Pick
– **Pick:** Jhonata Diniz to win by knockout
– **Confidence:** ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| | Jhonata Diniz | Alvin Hines |
|———————-|—————|————-|
| Age | 34 | 33 |
| Reach | 79.5″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 8‑1‑0 | 7‑0‑0 |
Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Preview
Diniz comes in with a kickboxing background and a heavyweight record filled with explosive finishes. Of his eight wins, seven are by knockout. His 57% striking accuracy and 3.36 significant strikes landed per minute mark him as a formidable stand-up fighter. His only loss was at UFC 309 when Marcin Tybura defeated him via doctor’s stoppage after ground control and elbows, revealing a vulnerability to grapplers.
Hines, although less tested in globally recognized promotions, brings a perfect 7-0 pro record into his UFC debut. He combines knockout power with submission skills, having achieved three knockouts and three submission wins. The key question is whether he can perform on the biggest stage of his career and if he can take Diniz to the ground to mitigate the Brazilian’s striking.
The stylistic contrast is evident in this fight. Diniz’s Muay Thai and kickboxing foundation make him a dangerous striker from range. Hines might mix grappling with striking, likely going for takedowns or clinch control. Diniz’s takedown defense indicates he won’t be easily submerged. However, if Hines brings the fight to the canvas, his three submission wins demonstrate he can pose a threat from the mat.
Betting Insights
– Moneyline odds heavily favor Diniz. He is -325 at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Hines is +260 for his UFC debut.
– The over/under for this fight is set at 1.5 rounds at -115 on both sides, suggesting an early finish or a bout extending into the third round.
– Only one of Diniz’s nine career fights has reached the third round.
Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines Prediction
Given his height, reach, and proven knockout potential, Diniz should maintain a standing fight and control it from the outside. He absorbs fewer than three significant strikes per minute and lands over three, offering him a clear statistical advantage in striking exchanges. His orthodox stance and kickboxing expertise establish him as a textbook heavy hitter who will restrict Hines’ grappling attempts by delivering powerful blows.
Hines will likely attempt to close the gap and initiate takedowns. However, Diniz’s takedown defense and cardio conditioning make it hazardous for Hines to engage closely. Most of Diniz’s fights end in stoppages in rounds one or two, which makes the under 1.5-round line an appealing play. A knockout win for Diniz in the early rounds is the most probable outcome.
For those seeking higher payouts, betting on Hines on the moneyline could be interesting, given his unbeaten record. Still, my inclination remains with Diniz, especially a knockout finish, which offers substantial upside considering his history.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com