The Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces will meet in Game 1 of their 2025 WNBA Playoffs semifinal series on Sunday afternoon. The Fever upset the Atlanta Dream to advance to this round, while the Aces held on as the higher seed against the Seattle Storm to move on. Here, I break down the opening game of this series and give you my Fever vs Aces Game 1 prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Fever vs Aces Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces −9
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: ABC
Fever vs Aces Game 1 Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total Points (O/U) |
|---|---|---|
| Aces −9 | Aces −470 | Fever +360 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
Several crucial factors will shape this series opener:
- Injuries & absences: Indiana is severely shorthanded. Caitlin Clark is out for the season with a groin injury and will not appear in any playoff game. Other guards, including Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald are also unavailable. Las Vegas appears to be at full strength. These absences reduce Indiana’s depth and limit their ability to counter or adjust on the fly. That didn’t stop them in the first round, but could be a problem against an experienced Aces team.
- Recent form: Las Vegas won 16 straight to end the regular season, carrying that momentum into a first round win over Seattle. Indiana has shown resolve in spite of their injuries, winning a dramatic Game 3 over Atlanta on a late bucket by Aliyah Boston. They will hope that their toughness is enough to steal another playoff game on the road.
- Style & matchups: A’ja Wilson remains the central figure for the Aces with her scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking. Indiana’s best hope is that Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell elevate their games again. Boston’s interior work and Mitchell’s perimeter scoring will need to overcome Las Vegas’ depth and home-court advantage.
- Early Start Time: Because ESPN mandates that the WNBA Playoffs are just counter-programming for the NFL on Sundays, this game is starting at noon in Las Vegas. That is an insane start time for a playoff basketball game and it will be interesting to see how that start time impacts these teams.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- In their regular-season meetings, Indiana took two of three over Las Vegas. However, many of those games came before the Aces found their groove and before they moved Jewell Loyd to the bench.
- The Fever went 2-1 against the spread in the first round of the playoffs. They won outright as a 7.5-point underdog in the deciding Game 3 against the Dream.
- Las Vegas was 1-2 against the spread in the opening round against Seattle. The Aces are favorites in a fourth consecutive playoff game here.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Ratings: Las Vegas ranked second in offensive rating in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs. Indiana was fourth in offensive rating among the eight playoff teams in round one.
- Defensive Ratings: Indiana ranked second in defensive rating in the opening round of the postseason. Las Vegas was sixth out of the eight playoff teams.
- Pace: Indiana played at the fastest pace of the four remaining teams in the playoffs. Vegas ranked third out of the four teams that are left.
Fever vs Aces Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana Fever 76 — Las Vegas Aces 88
Win Probability: Indiana 35% | Las Vegas 65%
Final Thoughts
The Fever deserve a ton of credit for overcoming the odds and winning in the first round over Atlanta despite all of their injury issues. But I think that the Aces are going to put a stop to Indiana’s run this postseason. The Aces have won 18 of their last 19 games and they should win this game as well. I’ll lay the points with the Aces in this series opener from the desert.
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- Source: https://ats.io/wnba/indiana-fever-vs-las-vegas-aces-game-1-prediction-9-21-2025/467764/