The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox will wrap up their three-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday afternoon. This is the final day of the regular season and there is a ton on the line for the Tigers. Detroit needs a win and a Cleveland Guardians loss to grab the top spot in the AL Central instead of having to settle for a Wild Card position. Before these playoff-bound teams face one another on the final day of the regular season, continue reading to get my Tigers vs Red Sox prediction.
Our Tigers vs Red Sox Pick
- Pick: Detroit Tigers to win
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Chris Paddack (Tigers) vs Undecided (Red Sox)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Broadcast: NESN and FDSDET
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The pitching matchup for this game is a mess. The Tigers are set to give Chris Paddack the start here. Paddack is 5-11 and has a 5.27 ERA for the season. He is certainly not who the Tigers want to have on the mound in a high-leverage spot, but that is who the Tigers have on the hill today. The Red Sox have yet to decide on a starting pitcher, as they are locked into the second Wild Card spot in the American League and they have nothing left to play for.
Recent Team Streaks
- Detroit: Clinched at least a wild card spot with Saturday’s 2–1 win over Boston. They have won two of their last three games heading into this contest.
- Boston: Boston has lost two of their last three games and have already secured a postseason spot as well.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Jahmai Jones (DET) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Detroit holds a 4-1 lead in their season series against the Red Sox.
- Home teams are 4-1 in games played between these teams this season.
Tigers vs Red Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Detroit 3 – Boston 2
Win Probability: Detroit 53%, Boston 47%
Final Thoughts
In my opinion, we should see the Detroit Tigers get the win on the road to do their part in their attempt to win the AL Central today. Detroit should take advantage of the fact that the Sox don’t have anything to play for here. Boston isn’t likely to send any of their most important pitchers to the mound in this contest and Detroit should capitalize on that and hope that the Guardians falter in their finale against the Texas Rangers today.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/detroit-tigers-vs-boston-red-sox-prediction-9-28-2025/468962/