Here are betting tips for the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season final.
To make the most of the odds before they potentially shorten, these previews are released before team sheets are announced. Those more cautious should wait for squad lists before betting.
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Crusaders vs. Chiefs |
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The Crusaders and Chiefs both had an 11-3 regular season record, showing little difference between them. This is reflected in the odds, with some bookmakers favoring the Crusaders slightly, while others favor the Chiefs. Currently, the best head-to-head odds available are:
Crusaders at 2.00 (Betfair)
Chiefs at 1.95 (bet365)
The Chiefs led the regular season standings, but a loss to the Blues in the qualifying finals means they play this game in Christchurch, not Hamilton. The Chiefs seek a better showing than last year’s final loss of 41-10 to the Blues at Eden Park. Revenge is also a factor, as the Chiefs lost the 2023 final at home 20-25 to the Crusaders.
A crucial point this week is the Crusaders’ 31-0 home record in Super Rugby playoffs. The Blues tried to use this as a psychological tactic last week, unsuccessfully.
Since Super Rugby’s inception, the final host has a 23-8 record. Six of the eight away wins were by the Crusaders. The Bulls (v Sharks) and Highlanders (v Hurricanes) are the only other teams with away Super Rugby title wins. The home record changes when excluding finals against international teams. In all-domestic Super Rugby finals, the home team has a moderate 7-6 record. Again, four of the six away domestic wins were by the Crusaders.
The Crusaders have lost to the Chiefs twice this year, including a 19-35 loss at home in May. The Chiefs overcame a 16-point deficit to win. The Crusaders have improved their home defense since then. The last three visitors to Apollo Projects Stadium scored just 12, 12, and 14 points. The Crusaders also have All Blacks winger Will Jordan back after a knee injury in the first half of their home loss to the Chiefs. Jordan scored twice against the Blues last week.
Last season’s 51 total points in the final was unusual. The average total score in a domestic Super Rugby final is 38.1. Nine of the thirteen previous domestic finals had under 40 total points.
The Crusaders have reached the final due to their defense. The Chiefs and Crusaders both recently played the Blues, of similar strength, and the total scores were 39 and 35 points. With defense likely to determine the match, a low-scoring game seems probable.
I would back Under 54.5 at 1.50 (<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.bet365.com/olp/open-account?affiliate=365_043202
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com