Chiefs vs. Cowboys Predictions – Props, Over & Spread Pick

Fahad Umar
November 27, 2025
9:30 am

For a matchup featuring the NFL’s top two quarterbacks in passing yards this season, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring Thanksgiving showdown. Our Chiefs vs. Cowboys Predictions point to several clear betting opportunities, led by Dak Prescott’s touchdown potential and George Pickens’ consistent production through the air.

Sports betting is unpredictable, and there are no guaranteed results. These suggestions are based only on statistical trends and matchup analysis.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Game Overview (NFL Week 13)

Kansas City enters this game at 6-5 following a win in which the defense played extremely well. Their balanced identity – Top 10 in both total offense and total defense – makes them one of the most complete units in the league.

The return of RB Isiah Pacheco after missing four straight games adds new life to the run game, while Patrick Mahomes is leading the offense with 2,977 passing yards and 18 touchdowns. Defensively, pass rusher George Karlaftis III has already tallied 5 sacks and 8 TFL, helping the Chiefs form one of the league’s most difficult scoring defenses.

Dallas is 5-5-1 and riding a two-game winning streak. The Cowboys have become one of the most explosive scoring teams (29.1 points per game) but continue to struggle on defense, ranking 31st in points allowed and 30th in pass yards allowed.

Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing yards (2,941) and has thrown 23 touchdowns, while George Pickens and Javonte Williams continue to fuel the offense. Pickens has recorded at least 70 yards in each of his last six games, and the Cowboys are 5-1-1 when Williams rushes for more than 80 yards. Although Dallas has multiple defensive starters listed as limited participants, they will be motivated at home in one of their signature annual games.

Cowboys to Cover the Spread +3.5

Dallas has been a much stronger team when the offense runs early and often through its main playmakers. Prescott remains the most productive passer in the league, and with Pickens red-hot and Williams in strong form, the Cowboys are well-built to attack the Chiefs’ coverage. Playing at home at AT&T Stadium – where they perform better than on the road – also boosts their chances. Meanwhile, Kansas City is missing offensive lineman Tyler Guyton and tight end Noah Gray, which could slow their rhythm in key moments. Dallas staying within a field goal is a reasonable expectation.

Over 52.5 Total Points

Both teams are built to score, and neither will shy away from a fast offensive tempo. The Cowboys average over 29 points per game and generate explosive plays consistently through the air. Kansas City’s offense is Top 10 in scoring, and Mahomes has a favorable matchup against one of the league’s weakest pass defenses. With both quarterbacks inside the Top 2 in passing yards this season, and with no major weather or defensive shutdown factors in play, a multi-touchdown shootout is very much on the table.

Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing TDs

This pick aligns perfectly with his season profile. Prescott leads the league in passing yards and has already thrown 23 touchdowns. Dallas leans heavily on the passing game, especially in the red zone, and Pickens plus Williams both elevate that efficiency: Williams’ rushing success sets up play-action, and Pickens stretches coverage deep. Given Kansas City’s strong run defense, Dallas is unlikely to force running attempts at the goal line, which boosts the probability of two or more passing scores.

George Pickens Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

Pickens has surpassed 70 yards in six straight games, and the Cowboys’ offense runs through him when they need chunk yardage. He has already logged 1,054 receiving yards and is Prescott’s most reliable vertical threat. Kansas City’s passing defense is good, but Pickens’ target volume and efficiency make him well-positioned to continue his streak – especially in what projects to be a high-scoring game where Dallas will need to pass deep and often.

The Last Game on Which Missourians are not Able to Bet on Their Chiefs

While Missourians can’t bet on the Chiefs vs. Cowboys matchup this week, that ends very soon.

There are just three days left before legal sports betting launches in Missouri. If you are from this state, you’ll be able to place bets on this week’s Monday Night Football (Week 13). If you want to back the Chiefs, you can do so in Week 14 when they face the Texans.

In the meantime, prepare yourself by learning more about the top apps launching in Missouri on opening day (December 1st), or read predictions on how much money fans are expected to wager in the first month.