Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 5/21/2025

Fahad Umar
May 21, 2025
3:01 am

On May 21, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park for the third game of their series. The Cubs are enjoying a strong season with a record of 29-20, while the Marlins are struggling at 19-28. The matchup is critical for both teams, particularly for the Marlins, who are looking to turn their season around.

In their last outing, the Cubs managed a strong offensive performance, pushing their home run total to 68, ranking them 4th among all teams in MLB. The Marlins, on the other hand, continue to face challenges at the plate, ranking only 21st in team home runs. Miami’s offense is average in terms of batting average, sitting at 11th, but their overall performance has yet to translate into consistent wins.

The pitching matchup features Miami’s Max Meyer, a right-hander with an above-average 2.94 xFIP, indicating he may have been unlucky this season despite a 3-4 record and a 4.47 ERA. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, which speaks to his ability to limit damage but also highlights concerns with allowing 5.1 hits and 1.8 walks on average. Conversely, the Cubs will send out Cade Horton, who holds a 2-0 record but struggles with a concerning 6.00 ERA and a below-average strikeout rate. His projections indicate he might only pitch 4.9 innings while allowing around 2.2 earned runs, but his issues with hits and walks could open the door for Miami’s offense.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, betting markets view this as a competitive matchup. The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -135, while the Marlins are offered at +115, reflecting close contest expectations. Given the performance gaps, the projections suggest Miami could be poised for a surprising upset, especially if their best hitters maintain their recent strong play.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago Cubs projected lineup ranks as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Max Meyer’s fastball spin rate has increased 130 rpm this year (2516 rpm) over where it was last year (2386 rpm).

Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jesus Sanchez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Horton.

This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Game Trends

The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)