Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction – 9/28/2025

The Chicago Bears are set to face the Las Vegas Raiders in a Week 4 game in the NFL on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. Both teams enter the game with 1-2 records and are seeking to rebound from early-season struggles. The Bears are coming off a their first win of the season over the Dallas Cowboys, while the Raiders are looking to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Washington Commanders. Here, you will find my breakdown of this game, including my Bears vs Raiders prediction.

Our Bears vs Raiders Pick

• Pick: Las Vegas Raiders ML (-110)
• Confidence: 3/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders
• Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Broadcast: CBS

Bears vs Raiders Odds

Key Storylines

• Caleb Williams’ Rise: Second-year quarterback Caleb Williams has shown major upside for Chicago. He led the Bears to their first win of the season with a stellar performance against the Cowboys in Week 3. His continued development will be crucial for Chicago’s success long-term and he will try to keep moving in the right direction this week.
• Raiders’ Defensive Concerns: Las Vegas’ defense struggled in their most loss to the Washington Commanders. They gave up 201 rushing yards and registered only one sack. Improving their defensive performance will be key to their chances in this matchup.
• Coaching Impact: Bears head coach Ben Johnson secured his first win with the team after an 0-2 start. Raiders head coach Pete Carroll aims to halt a two-game losing streak and reach a 2-2 record with a win in this contest.

Quarterback Play

Caleb Williams has been impressive early in his second NFL season with seven touchdowns and just one interception. In the Bears’ Week 3 victory over the Cowboys, Williams threw four touchdown passes and demonstrated a strong connection with receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. His performance has garnered attention and praise from analysts after a rough rookie season.

Geno Smith leads the Raiders’ offense from the quarterback position. Smith has been volatile as the signal caller for the Raiders. He has four touchdown passes and four interceptions. Smith has to avoid putting the ball in harm’s way if his team is going to win this week’s game.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Both of these teams are 1-2 against the spread to start the 2025 NFL season.
• Chicago has had two of its first three games go over their totals.
• The Raiders have seen two of their first three games stay under their totals.

Bears vs Raiders Model Projection

Score Projection: Bears 20 – Raiders 21

Win Probability: Bears 49%, Raiders 51%

Final Thoughts

I project this as a very close game and oddsmakers agree with me on that front. The Raiders have a slight edge in my eyes, as the veteran leadership of Smith should help them overcome the dangerous but inexperienced Caleb Williams. Look for Maxx Crosby to put pressure on Williams and for that to lead to some mistakes that will help the Raiders get the win at home.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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• Source: https://ats.io/nfl/chicago-bears-vs-las-vegas-raiders-prediction-9-28-2025/468061/