Strikeouts Prop Odds:
Strikeouts 5.5 over: -182
Strikeouts 5.5 under: 140
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chase Burns in the 90th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.
The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story).
Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Fenway Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.
Chase Burns was on point in his previous GS and put up 8 strikeouts.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Burns to throw 81 pitches in this matchup (least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Fenway Park grades out as the #29 venue in MLB for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is forecasted to have the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 83°.
The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.8-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for bats.
Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Chase Burns (34.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Boston’s projected lineup.
Chase Burns is projected to have 5.1 Strikeouts in today’s game.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/props/chase-burns-10017109/428725/