The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will meet in Game 3 of their American League Wild Card playoff series on Thursday. Each team has taken a game in this series so far and the winner of this contest will punch their ticket to the ALDS. A couple of unproven starting pitchers will be under the microscope in this matchup. To find out who I think will come out on top, continue reading to get my Red Sox vs Yankees Game 3 prediction.
Our Red Sox vs Yankees Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Over 7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
- Date: Thursday, October 2, 2025
- Starting Pitchers: Connelly Early (BOS) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
With veteran Lucas Giolito unavailable due to an elbow injury, Boston is forced to roll out Connelly Early to start Game 3. Early is a promising youngster who posted a 2.33 ERA over 19.1 innings this season. New York will hand the ball to Cam Schlittler in this deciding game. Schlittler has posted a 2.96 ERA across 73 innings. These two rookies will have a chance to write their names in the history books of one of baseball’s great rivalries and the game could come down to which starter performs best.
Key Players
- Trevor Story (BOS): He was responsible for all three of Boston’s runs in Game 2 and he will be a threat to Yankee pitching again in Game 3.
- Austin Wells (NYY): Wells delivered the clutch go-ahead hit in Game 2 with a two-out RBI single in the bottom of the eighth inning.
- Ben Rice (NYY): His two-run homer in Game 2 gave New York an early lead. Contributions from role players like Rice could be just as important as the play of Aaron Judge depending on who comes up in big spots.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Aaron Judge | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
| Connelly Early | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston is 10-5 against the Yankees this season going into this winner-take-all Game 3.
- The first two games of this series have both gone under their respective totals.
- New York is 51-32 at home across the regular season and postseason.
- Boston’s road record stands at 42-41 going into the final game of this Wild Card series.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Boston 4 – New York 6
Win Probability: Boston 41%, New York 59%
Final Thoughts
This should be another tight game between these AL East rivals. With both teams starting unproven pitchers that will likely be on short leashes, I think that the over is the best bet in this matchup. We should see a lot of both bullpens and we should see more damage done by both lineups. I think that the Yankees will take this game at home when all is said and done, but that the over is the better wager.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/boston-red-sox-vs-new-york-yankees-game-3-prediction-10-2-2025/469338/