The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will meet in Game 1 of their 2025 AL Wild Card series on Tuesday night. These AL East rivals will write another chapter in their storied postseason history with one another here and we get a spectacular pitching matchup in their series opener. Before both teams send their aces to the hill for this contest, keep reading to get my Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 prediction.
Our Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 30, 2025, 6:08 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Yankees: Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA)
- Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
This feels like the marquee pitching matchup of the Wild Card round. New York will go with Max Fried to start this series opener. Fried piled up 19 wins this season with a 2.86 ERA and 189 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. He’s been especially sharp down the stretch, including a dominant 13-strikeout performance against the Orioles in late September.
Garrett Crochet will get the start for Boston in Game 1. Crochet has a 2.59 ERA in 2025 and has been consistently feasting on the Yankees. He posted 39 strikeouts in 27.1 innings against New York this year. Crochet matches up well with New York’s lefty-heavy lineup. Crochet has to deliver here, or the Sox will be in an 0-1 hole without their ace to lean on for the rest of this series.
Recent team streaks
New York enters the postseason on a strong run, having gone 31-12 since August 11. That is the best record over that stretch in MLB. The Yankees won eight games in a row to end the regular season and will try to carry that momentum into the playoffs. Boston won two out of three games over the Detroit Tigers in their final series of the regular season.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
| Max Fried | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Aaron Judge | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Boston went 9-4 against the Yankees during the regular season.
- The Yankees won three of the final four games between these teams in the regular season.
- New York went 50-31 at home in the regular season.
- Boston enters the postseason with a 41-40 record on the road.
Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Red Sox 4 — Yankees 3
Win Probability: Red Sox 55%, Yankees 45%
Final Thoughts
The Yankees are playing some of the best baseball in the league going into the playoffs. But Boston should be able to neutralize the offense of the Yankees with Garrett Crochet on the hill tonight. I will take the Red Sox to win this game as a slight underdog, as Aaron Judge’s struggles in the playoffs could very well return against one of the best arms in baseball right now.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io features affiliate links to licensed online casinos, sportsbooks, and gambling platforms. That means if you click on them and end up signing up or making a deposit, we might earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We only work with licensed and reputable online casinos, social casinos and sportsbooks. Our content whether it’s reviews, guides, or betting tips is written with the goal of being honest, helpful, and based on real experience. While we do earn through affiliate partnerships, it doesn’t affect our recommendations. If a site isn’t safe or doesn’t meet our standards, we won’t promote it. Simple as that. We also take responsible gambling seriously. We encourage all our readers to gamble safely, set limits, and know when to take a break. Have questions? Feel free to reach out. We’re always happy to chat.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/boston-red-sox-vs-new-york-yankees-game-1-prediction-9-30-2025/469118/