The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs will open the second half of their seasons against each other on Friday night. The Red Sox hold the longest active winning streak in baseball going into this game. To keep that streak alive, the Sox will need to win in one of the hardest places to play in baseball. Here, I break down this interleague contest and make my Red Sox vs Cubs prediction for their series opener.
Our Red Sox vs Cubs Pick
- Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs
- Date & Time: Friday, July 18, 2025, 2:20 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Lucas Giolito vs Colin Rea
- Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: NESN (BOS), Marquee Sports Network (CHC), MLB Network
Key Storylines
- Boston’s 10‑game winning streak is the biggest storyline heading into this game. They have moved to within three games of first place in the AL East and will look for a strong start to the second half of their season today.
- Chicago enters today with a 57-39 record and stellar home form. They are 30‑16 at Wrigley Field on the year.
- The pitching matchup features two solid starters. Both Lucas Giolito and Colin Rea have ERAs under 4.00 for the season and will be key to the success of their teams.
Pitching Form
Lucas Giolito has been dominant since early June. He’s allowed just three earned runs total over his last six starts for the Sox. Colin Rea has won his last three outings for the Cubs. His 3.91 ERA on the year is respectable. But advanced metrics suggest he could be in for some regression in the second half of the year.
Bullpen Usage
Both of the bullpens in this game have been stellar this season. The Red Sox rank fifth in the league in bullpen ERA and Chicago ranks sixth. Both bullpens should be fresh after the break.
Recent Team Streaks
- Red Sox: Winners of 10 straight prior to the break.
- Cubs: 3‑2 in their last 5 games. They won two straight over the Yankees before the All-Star break.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | Over 1.5 total bases |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | Over 0.5 RBI |
| Lucas Giolito | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game of three to be played between these teams this season.
- Boston is 24-17 in day games this season. Chicago is 25-19 in their day games in 2025.
- The Cubs have gone over the total in 53.9% of their games this season. The Red Sox have gone 50/50 on totals for the year.
Red Sox vs Cubs Model Projection
Score Projection: Red Sox 6 – Cubs 5
Win Probability: Boston 50%, Chicago 50%
Final Thoughts
I think that the Red Sox are a live dog in this game. Giolito has been pitching well for them lately. Boston has all of the momentum from their 10-game winning streak and they are well-rested from the break. This game could go either way in my opinion. Therefore, there is some value on the underdog in Chicago this afternoon.
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- Source: https://ats.io/mlb/boston-red-sox-vs-chicago-cubs-prediction-7-18-2025/446740/