Best Bets UFC 325: Volkanovski Over 4.5, Fiziev ML Picks

Alexander Volkanovski defends a world title in Sydney for the first time in his career, and the Best Bets UFC 325 slate points to a long main event, a grappling finish in the co-main, and two fights that trend toward early stoppages.

Here’s a quick snapshot of the recommended bets for the main card.

*UFC betting involves risk, and outcomes are never guaranteed. These picks are based on matchup analysis, usage trends, and current team context.

Main Event Prediction: Volkanovski vs. Lopes – Over 4.5 Rounds

Volkanovski and Diego Lopes run it back after their April 2025 fight, where Volkanovski won by decision but had to survive real danger. Lopes threatened with a submission attempt and scored a heavy knockdown, yet Volkanovski controlled range and output over 25 minutes.

The metrics still favor a longer fight. Volkanovski lands 6.18 significant strikes per minute with 56 percent accuracy and 58 percent striking defense. Lopes lands 4.36 per minute with 48 percent accuracy and 51 percent striking defense, and that defensive gap remains his clearest liability.

Lopes brings elite finishing ability, his wins end by KO/TKO 44 percent of the time and by submission 41 percent, but Volkanovski’s 70 percent takedown defense and championship-level pacing reduce the chance of an early finish. Lopes tends to do his best work early, while Volkanovski thrives in a 25-minute grind.

These UFC 325 predictions focus on form, style, and repeatable trends. You can place these picks at the best sportsbooks for UFC betting, such as DraftKings or use a regulated prediction platform such as Kalshi as an alternative way to trade on outcomes.

Co-Main Event Pick: Benoît Saint Denis to Win by Submission

This fight comes down to whether Dan Hooker can keep it at range. Hooker is a long striker who uses knees and elbows well, but Benoît Saint Denis forces pace and pushes fights into clinches and grappling exchanges. Saint Denis averages 4.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and carries a strong submission profile, with 56 percent of his wins coming by submission.

Hooker’s recent submission loss to Arman Tsarukyan matters here because it reinforces the risk when a pressure grappler starts chaining attempts. Saint Denis also enters with momentum, riding a three-fight finishing streak and coming off a first-round KO of Beneil Dariush in November 2025. If this turns into a fence-heavy fight where Hooker has to defend repeated takedowns, the submission path stays live.

Use Dan Hooker vs. Benoît Saint Denis Picks carefully, because Hooker is dangerous early and tough, but the grappling math points to Saint Denis hunting a finish once he secures position.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction: Moneyline on the Proven Striker

Ruffy brings a massive KO profile, with 88 percent of his wins by KO/TKO and a style built around patient counters. The question is how that translates against a higher-volume, proven lightweight with elite defensive layers.

Fiziev lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute with 52 percent accuracy, owns a 50 percent striking defense, and carries a 90 percent takedown defense that keeps this in his comfort zone. He also has experience against top-level strikers, including a high-damage fight with Justin Gaethje. Ruffy is fresher, but he has not shown this level of opponent on his record, and a lower-volume counter style can fall behind if Fiziev controls pace and gets first touch consistently.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy Predictions favor Fiziev’s experience and volume, so the moneyline fits the matchup shape.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira Betting: Under 1.5 Rounds

Under 1.5 rounds means the fight ends before the halfway point of Round 2. This matchup fits that profile. Tuivasa has a 93 percent KO/TKO rate, Teixeira owns a 100 percent finish rate, and both fighters build their game around power.

The durability signals also push toward a fast ending. Tuivasa enters on a five-fight skid with multiple knockout losses, while Teixeira was finished by Derrick Lewis in 2025, which shows his defense can break under big exchanges. Teixeira’s 83-inch reach and height edge, 6’7” with an 83-inch reach compared to Tuivasa at 6’2” with a 75-inch reach, creates early contact opportunities at range. Tuivasa’s path requires crashing the pocket and trading hooks, and that kind of entry raises the finish probability on both sides.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira Picks should treat this as a volatile fight, but the data still supports a quick stoppage.

Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey Predictions: Under 1.5 Rounds

Salkilld’s pace stands out. He lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute with 57 percent accuracy and averages 7.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. That combination creates constant danger, either through damage or grappling control, and he enters undefeated in the UFC at 3-0 with a 10-fight win streak.

Mullarkey brings grit and experience, and he is also a key training partner for Volkanovski, which suggests solid camp work. Still, he accepted this bout on short notice, and the matchup asks him to absorb a young fighter’s pace for as long as it lasts. With Salkilld’s finishing profile and nonstop pressure style, a quick ending remains a logical lean.

Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey Predictions point to Salkilld forcing early exchanges and finding a finish or overwhelming control inside 7.5 minutes.

UFC 325 Preview

UFC 325 takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, with 14 total bouts across the main card, prelims, and early prelims. The event is loaded with local talent, with 11 fighters from Australia and three from New Zealand, and it includes Season 4 Road to UFC finals on the early prelims.

It also marks a major broadcast shift, with Paramount+ listed as the primary home for UFC numbered events in 2026.

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• Source: https://sportshandle.com/best-bets-ufc-325-volkanovski-vs-lopes-predictions-hooker-saint-denis-picks/