Best Bets UFC 324: Gaethje KO, Song ML, Umar Props

Fahad Umar
January 24, 2026
1:00 pm

UFC 324 lands on January 24 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and reshapes the viewing model with its Paramount+ debut. This breakdown focuses on the best bets for UFC 324, targeting outcomes that align with form, matchup dynamics, and likely fight flow. The card centers on an interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, with major implications for a division on pause due to Ilia Topuria’s hiatus.

Several bouts also shape future title pictures, which is why these UFC 324 predictions focus on method markets, control metrics, and stylistic pressure rather than simple win-loss outcomes. Sean O’Malley fights to halt a skid against Song Yadong, while Umar Nurmagomedov pushes toward a bantamweight title shot. From knockdowns to control-heavy decisions, the betting focus leans toward the method of victory and fight totals rather than simple sides.

Sports betting is unpredictable. These plays are suggestions based on stylistic analysis and current form, not guarantees.

Gaethje vs. Pimblett Predictions

This interim lightweight title fight pits pressure striking against submission hunting. Gaethje remains one of the highest-volume strikers in UFC history, landing over seven significant strikes per minute while rarely shooting takedowns. Pimblett enters on a surge after finishing Michael Chandler, but his defensive metrics remain a concern against elite opposition.

Gaethje’s leg kicks and counter combinations threaten to limit Pimblett’s grappling entries. Pimblett’s success depends on surviving early exchanges and forcing scrambles. The five-round format favors Gaethje’s experience in long fights, though questions around durability linger after his recent knockout loss.

The following Gaethje vs. Pimblett picks highlight outcomes that align with likely fight flow and historical tendencies. These wagers are available through major sportsbooks like FanDuel or via regulated prediction markets such as Kalshi, depending on state access.

1+ Knockdowns in the Fight

This matchup strongly favors at least one knockdown due to the striking dynamics on both sides. Justin Gaethje averages 7.20 significant strikes per minute, one of the highest marks in UFC history, and his leg-kick-heavy approach consistently breaks down opponents over time. Even in fights that go long, Gaethje’s pressure and power often lead to visible damage or knockdowns.

Paddy Pimblett’s defensive metrics further support this angle. He absorbs clean shots with a 41% striking defense, often relying on durability rather than avoidance. Against a volume striker like Gaethje – who forces exchanges and punishes defensive lapses – a knockdown becomes a highly realistic outcome, even without a full finish.

Fight to Go the Distance – No

Both fighters carry strong finishing profiles, but through different methods. Gaethje has ended 80% of his wins by KO/TKO, while Pimblett owns a 44% submission rate, creating multiple paths to a stoppage. With five rounds scheduled, the opportunity for damage accumulation or a grappling scramble increases significantly.

Stylistically, this is not a matchup that favors extended point-fighting. Gaethje’s pressure forces exchanges, and Pimblett’s aggressive submission hunting often leaves defensive openings. Given their combined finishing rates and high-risk tendencies, the probability of this fight reaching the judges appears lower than average for a title bout.

Justin Gaethje to Win by KO/TKO

Gaethje’s striking profile presents a major problem for Pimblett. He lands at a 60% accuracy rate, defends strikes at 52%, and applies relentless leg-kick pressure that limits movement and takedown entries. Pimblett’s 55% takedown defense and upright stance leave him vulnerable if he cannot initiate grappling early.

As the fight progresses, Gaethje’s experience, durability, and measured aggression become decisive. If Pimblett’s movement slows — particularly after sustained leg damage – exchanges will increasingly favor Gaethje. Given his knockout-heavy win history and Pimblett’s defensive tendencies, a KO/TKO finish remains the most logical outcome.

Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong Predictions

These O’Malley vs. Yadong predictions center on pace, distance management, and how each fighter handles pressure in a three-round format.

O’Malley enters under pressure after back-to-back losses, while Song builds momentum following a technical decision over Henry Cejudo. Song’s forward pressure and improved clinch work contrast with O’Malley’s long-range sniping style.

How the Fight Will End – Points

Despite their striking reputations, this matchup profiles more like a measured, tactical battle than a quick finish. O’Malley lands at an elite 61% accuracy rate but often fights cautiously when pressured, preferring range control over risky exchanges. Song, meanwhile, has gone to decision in 45% of his wins, showing patience when facing durable opposition.

Neither fighter is easy to put away at bantamweight, and both have shown the ability to survive adversity. With Song likely pressing forward and O’Malley countering at range, the fight projects as competitive rather than chaotic. Over three rounds, sustained exchanges, clinch work, and volume trading point toward a judges’ decision rather than a stoppage.

Song Yadong Moneyline

This matchup favors pressure, physicality, and composure – areas where Song Yadong holds a clear edge. While Sean O’Malley remains the cleaner striker statistically, his recent struggles against pressure-heavy opponents raise concerns. He is coming off back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili, where sustained grappling and physicality disrupted his rhythm and limited his output.

Song’s evolution at Team Alpha Male has added layers to his game. He now mixes power boxing with improved clinch work and a 73% takedown defense, allowing him to stay upright while forcing exchanges. In a three-round fight, Song’s explosiveness and willingness to press forward matter more than long-term efficiency. If he can close distance and force O’Malley into uncomfortable exchanges, the stylistic edge leans in his favor.

The “Sleeper” Hit: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Predictions

These Nurmagomedov vs. Figueiredo predictions point to a control-heavy fight that favors round accumulation over early risk. Umar Nurmagomedov enters as a massive favorite (-1450) thanks to his elite wrestling base, averaging 4.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and coming off an 11-takedown performance against Mario Bautista. His 60% strike defense further reinforces his ability to dictate pace while limiting damage.

Umar’s style is a direct product of his Dagestani upbringing under Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, with Khabib continuing to play a major mentorship role. Like his cousin, the “Young Eagle” prioritizes positional dominance and round control rather than chasing finishes. That approach is especially effective against Deiveson Figueiredo, whose 57% takedown defense remains the most exploitable area of his game.

Figueiredo is still dangerous, carrying knockout power and strong submission instincts, but at 38 years old, sustaining success across three rounds against a pressure wrestler is a tall order. With a title opportunity likely awaiting Umar if he wins, the matchup sets up for a measured performance built on wrestling volume and control, pointing toward a decision-based outcome rather than a finish.

Umar Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision

This stands out as the safest of our Nurmagomedov vs. Figueiredo picks based on historical fight patterns and judging criteria.

Nurmagomedov prioritizes position and round control over forcing finishes, with 53% of his fights going to a decision. Against a durable veteran, three rounds of wrestling and controlled striking point toward a scorecard win.

Umar Nurmagomedov Over 3.5 Takedowns

We searched for this prop across major sportsbooks without success. At the time of testing, DraftKings was the only platform offering fighter takedown totals, but only for select main card bouts. That said, there is always the option of trading. Nurmagomedov’s average of 4.30 takedowns per 15 minutes supports this angle if it becomes available.

UFC 324 Preview

UFC 324 blends divisional shakeups with a new broadcast era. The card features interim gold, title eliminators, and veteran crossroads fights, all on an earlier start schedule for U.S. viewers.