Baylor vs Oklahoma State Pick & Prediction – 9/27/2025

The Baylor Bears will travel to Stillwater on Saturday to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a Big 12 matchup. The coaching situation for the Cowboys is a major storyline going into this game and Baylor will look to take advantage of their lack of stability in this conference matchup. Before kickoff from Stillwater, continue reading to get my Baylor vs Oklahoma State prediction below.

Our Baylor vs Oklahoma State Pick

• Pick: Baylor Bears -20.5
• Confidence: 4/5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
• Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDT
• Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
• Broadcast: ESPN2

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Odds

Key Storylines

• Mike Gundy’s Departure: The Oklahoma State Cowboys are not under the leadership of Mike Gundy for the first time in 20 years. OSU fired him just three games into the season and they will have to adjust to a new voice leading them while also trying to end their struggles on the field.
• Oklahoma State’s Offensive Struggles: The Cowboys are averaging just 14 points per game, ranking 134th nationally. Their offense has been stagnant, with quarterback Zane Flores throwing zero touchdowns so far this year. They will have to turn things around against Big 12 competition, which is easier said than done.
• Baylor’s Offensive Momentum: After a slow start to the season, the Bears have found their offensive rhythm, averaging 34.5 points per game. Their passing attack is potent, but the other flaws in their roster have led to all of those points producing just a 2-2 record.
• Defensive Concerns for Both Teams: Both Baylor and Oklahoma State have defensive issues. The Cowboys’ defense allows 426.7 yards per game, ranking 119th nationally, while Baylor’s defense has conceded 29.3 points per game.

Quarterback Play

Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson is off to a productive start this year. He has thrown 13 touchdown passes and has over 1,300 yards through the air through four games. He will look to keep moving the ball through the air to help his team get a much-needed Big 12 win. Oklahoma State’s Zane Flores has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season and he simply has to be better for his team to get into the win column against an FBS opponent.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Baylor is 1-3 against the spread this season.
• Oklahoma is 0-3 against the spread on the year.
• Baylor is 2-2 with their totals this season.
• Oklahoma State has seen two of their first three games go under their totals.
• Oklahoma State leads the all-time series between these teams 20-17.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Model Projection

Score Projection: Baylor 38 – Oklahoma State 17

Win Probability: Baylor 82%, Oklahoma State 18%

Final Thoughts

Everything that could go wrong this season has gone wrong for Oklahoma State. They haven’t beaten an FBS opponent yet this year and I don’t expect them to get a win over an FBS opponent in this game either. I am going to lay the points with Baylor in this matchup, as their passing offense should help them create separation and win this game by a large margin.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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• Source: https://ats.io/college-football/baylor-bears-vs-oklahoma-state-cowboys-pick-prediction-9-27-2025/468493/