Auburn vs Baylor Pick & Prediction – 8/29/25

The Auburn Tigers and Baylor Bears will meet on Friday night to start their 2025 college football seasons. Both teams in this SEC vs Big 12 matchup enter the season unranked. But a win in this game could help one of them move into the top 25 before Week 2 begins. Before kickoff in this battle between power conference teams, continue reading to get my Auburn vs Baylor prediction.

Our Auburn vs Baylor Pick

• Pick: Baylor +2.5
• Confidence: 2/5
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Auburn Tigers vs Baylor Bears
• Date & Time: Friday, August 29, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
• Broadcast: FOX

Auburn vs Baylor Odds

Key Storylines

• Auburn comes into this season with low expectations. They were tied for the fewest points in the SEC preseason media poll for the conference championship. They are expected to finish in the bottom half of the SEC standings and will try to exceed expectations starting in this game.
• Baylor enters this game led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Robertson returns as the unquestioned starter after throwing for 3,071 yards and 28 touchdowns last year.
• Auburn’s head coach Hugh Freeze faces early pressure going into Week 1. This opener may define how people perceive his program’s direction after some disappointing seasons with the Tigers.
• Baylor finished fifth in the Big 12 last season but they were just one game from joining the four-way tie for first place in the conference. They will likely come into this season with a chip on their shoulder in trying to get back to the Big 12 title game.
• Auburn went 5-7 last season and was one of three SEC programs to fail to reach six wins. This game feels very important as they look to enjoy a resurgence in 2025.

Quarterback Play

Sawyer Robertson provides a polished and poised presence for Baylor on offense. His familiarity with the offense under coordinator Jake Spavital and ability to make plays outside structure make him Baylor’s greatest asset entering this year. Auburn’s quarterback situation is headlined by Jackson Arnold to begin this year. Arnold transferred in from Oklahoma and was disappointing last year for the Sooners.

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first meeting between Auburn and Baylor since the 1970s. Baylor is holding a 2-1-1 edge in the all-time series.
• Baylor finished strong last season with a six-game win streak before falling in the Texas Bowl against LSU.

Auburn vs Baylor Model Projection

Score Projection: Auburn 27 – Baylor 30

Win Probability: Auburn 49%, Baylor 51%

Final Thoughts

I don’t think it is a hot take to say that I’d rather have Sawyer Robertson under center than Jackson Arnold heading into this year. Baylor is at home and should have the better quarterback play on their side in this matchup. I’ll take Baylor as an underdog in this game. They could cover the spread and win outright.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.

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• Source: https://ats.io/college-football/auburn-vs-baylor-pick-prediction-8-29-25/463792/