- Carlos Alcaraz is a significant -650 favorite against Lorenzo Musetti in the French Open semifinal on Friday
- The defending champion holds the shortest odds for the tournament win at -110
- Continue reading for the Alcaraz vs Musetti odds, along with picks and predictions for the French Open semifinal
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is once again in a familiar spot at the French Open, just one victory away from another Grand Slam Final. Alcaraz easily overcame his quarterfinal opponent, Tommy Paul, and sportsbooks are predicting a similar result in the semifinals against Lorenzo Musetti. However, despite these odds, I believe Musetti will challenge Alcaraz when they face off on Friday.
This match will take place on Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, France, with broadcast coverage on TBS/truTV/TNT and Max.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
Alcaraz is currently favored at -650 on the moneyline and is giving 6.5 games on the spread. Musetti is a +475 underdog, while the total is set at 34.5 games. The game total market is intriguing, as Musetti has the ability to extend this match to four or more sets.
Odds as of June 4 at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review for sign-up bonuses.
Alcaraz vs Musetti Picks and Predictions
- Over 34.5 Games (-120)
Starting with the defending champion, he conceded only five games in the quarterfinal, winning 48 out of 55 service points. It was Alcaraz’s second largest margin win at a Grand Slam, overcoming a top-five returner on the tour. The Spaniard executed flawlessly, becoming the first reigning champ to reach Roland Garros’ final four since 2021.
Alcaraz improved his clay record this season to 20-1, leading the men’s circuit with 35 wins and three titles. However, Tommy Paul was likely fatigued from prior five-set matches and was hampered by a leg injury, impacting his movement and shots.
While Alcaraz capitalized on Paul’s condition, facing Musetti will be tougher. Despite Alcaraz’s status as the favorite in the French Open odds, don’t expect an easy straight sets victory on Friday.
Alcaraz vs Musetti H2H – Last 5 Results
Musetti is currently performing at an elite level. He is a clay court expert, making semis in the year’s top clay events, including Monte-Carlo, Madrid, Rome, and now Roland Garros. He faced Alcaraz in the Monte-Carlo final, winning a set despite an injury.
The Italian excels against strong serves, ranking in the top-10 for break point conversions and playing impressive defensive tennis by forcing opponents to play additional shots. Despite slow starts in recent matches, he finished strongly.
He delivered 44 winners in a four-set quarterfinal win over Frances Tiafoe, and secured the last two sets against Holger Rune, conceding only five games. Musetti holds a 13-4 record at Roland Garros, with his defeats against Djokovic and Alcaraz in 2023.
Though their head-to-head may appear one-sided, Musetti is 1-2 against Alcaraz on clay. He is at his peak and ranks among the top five players on this surface. I foresee him challenging Alcaraz beyond the 34.5 game total in the semis.
- SCCG Management. The Gambling Industry’s Global Connector. Access Here.
- Source: SCCGManagement.com