The Phoenix Mercury is the hottest team in the WNBA right now and not just because they are named after the planet closest to the sun. Phoenix has won six games in a row. They come into Sunday’s game against the Las Vegas Aces looking to extend that winning streak. Here, I break down this matchup from all angles and make my Aces vs Mercury prediction in a game with high stakes for both teams.
Our Aces vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: NBA TV
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Aces | +6.5 (-110) | +225 | 167 |
| Phoenix Mercury | -6.5 (-110) | -278 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix enters with strong momentum after six straight victories, including a convincing 106‑91 win over New York on June 27.
- Las Vegas is 7-8 on the season and have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. While A’ja Wilson has been superhuman as usual, the supporting cast around her has not been up to snuff.
- The Mercury have won two straight games by double-digits.
- Phoenix moved into second place in the WNBA standings after beating the Liberty on Friday night. The Aces are in ninth place and would be out of the playoffs if the regular season ended today. Thankfully for them, the regular season does not end today, and they still have time to recover.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- In their sole prior meeting this season (June 15 in Vegas), Phoenix claimed a 76‑70 victory.
- The Mercury is 10-6 against the spread for the year. Vegas is 5-10 ATS.
- Phoenix is 7‑2 at home, while Las Vegas is 2‑4 on the road.
- Both teams have gone over the total in the majority of their games this season. Phoenix is 9-6-1 to the over for the year and Las Vegas is 8-7 to the over.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Phoenix ranks in the top six in offensive, defensive, and net rating this year. Las Vegas is ninth in the league in all three categories.
- Both teams are in the top five in the WNBA in pace. The Mercury are second in that department and the Aces are tied for fourth.
- A’ja Wilson is a walking mismatch for the Aces, but Vegas doesn’t have a reliable second big to help guard the duo of Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally for Phoenix.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 87 – Las Vegas Aces 77
Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 68%, Las Vegas Aces 32%
Final Thoughts
Phoenix’s superior health, home‑court advantage, and balance make them the sharper play here. The Aces are not looking like the same team they have been in previous seasons and I am especially concerned about them on defense. While a Las Vegas upset is always possible, Phoenix holds the upper hand. Expect the Mercury to cover the 6.5-point spread convincingly.
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- Source: https://ats.io/wnba/las-vegas-aces-vs-phoenix-mercury-prediction-odds-picks-june-29-2025/427803/