The 2025 BMW Championship will take place at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland this week. It is the second FedEx Cup Playoff event on the PGA Tour this season. This tournament features a field consisting of the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings. Only the top 30 will advance into next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Here, I break down this tournament and bring you my BMW Championship prediction.
Our BMW Championship Prediction
- Pick: Daniel Berger
- Confidence: 2/5
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BMW Championship Preview
The second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs returns to Caves Valley in Maryland. This venue last hosted in 2021. This no-cut event consists of four rounds and there is immense pressure on every stroke. The top 50 players are battling to lock up a spot in the top 30 to qualify for the tour championship. Scottie Scheffler is once again a heavy favorite. But he is so far ahead of the field in the FedEx Cup standings that he simply doesn’t need this tournament as badly as the rest of the field.
Rory McIlroy skipped last week’s St. Jude Championship but remains second in FedExCup standings. His decision to rest strategically suggests confidence in his standing going into the final events of the playoffs. Players like Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland also loom as strong contenders in this tournament.
But bettors could be rewarded for betting on some of the players near the top 30 cut line going into this tournament. Those players will be highly aggressive as they look to lock up enough FedEx Cup points to advance to the next phase of the playoffs and could pay out at much longer odds than some of the aforementioned favorites.
BMW Championship Course Info
Caves Valley Golf Club is a challenging par-71 layout stretching over 7,600 yards. The course was designed by Tom Fazio and renovated in 2020. It features fast greens, rolling fairways, and strategically placed water hazards. The terrain demands a sharp short game and precise approach play. There are scoring chances but this course punishes errant shots in a big way.
Betting Odds
- Scottie Scheffler +225
- Rory McIlroy +800
- Xander Schauffele +1800
- Tommy Fleetwood +2000
- Ludvig Aberg +2200
- Patrick Cantlay +2500
- Justin Thomas +2500
- JJ Spaun +3000
- Collin Morikawa +3000
- Cameron Young +3000
- Russell Henley +3000
BMW Championship Prediction
Scottie Scheffler is always the player most likely to dominate in any given week on tour. His outstanding performances this season and his all-around strength in driving, greens-in-regulation, and short game make the tricky greens and demanding layout of Caves Valley an ideal fit for his game. But I’m not sure that we’ll see the best of Scheffler given that he’s already secured a spot in the tour championship.
Instead, I think that bettors should look further down the list of competitors to win this event. I think a player like Daniel Berger could be an interesting option to win this event at +10000. He is just a few spots away from the top 30 and qualification for next week’s championship tournament. He is in the positives in strokes gained going into this event and has finished top three in multiple tournaments. We’ll take a shot with him to steal this event and make the championship event in Atlanta.
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- Source: https://ats.io/golf/2025-bmw-championship-prediction-tournament-preview/462194/